H5Purpose
Technology that serves the common good.
Sapiens First · movement growth model
100k active people by September 2027.
Test what it would take to build that movement through action, recruitment, and training.
Sep 30, 2027 · Goal path test
Goal cleared103k
active people in this scenario
This is an ambitious scenario built from unverified assumptions, not a forecast or a reported result.
Outcomes
Participation over time
Choose a month to inspect the model. Switch between total active people and the number gained or lost each month.
Sep 30, 2027 · modeled
Active totalRequired path
Model a trigger
Add a trigger event to the model
A public event can bring a short burst of attention. Add a hypothetical one to test how timing, readiness, and follow-up affect participation.
No event is modeled. The example starts in Mar ’27 for two months; you can change every assumption.
Coral bands show the months when a trigger lifts the model. This draws on Bill Moyer’s Movement Action Plan, Stage 4 (take-off). A trigger is a scenario assumption, not a scheduled event or a prediction. MAP stages can overlap; the model does not predict public opinion or policy wins. Read the Movement Action Plan.
No trigger is modeled yet. Add a hypothetical event in the panel above to see how it changes the curve.
Trigger attention is temporary. If people return and become organizers, their work continues after the attention spike ends.
Active people
103k
Sep 30, 2027 · modeled
Members
103k
People in an ongoing role
Organizers
5.2k
Trained and active in the model
See this month’s activity details
Invitations
422,842
First actions
105,711
Repeat participants
52,609
Follow-up gap
246
Members
103,120
New member roles
52,609
New organizers
2,619
Local circles
2,579
The total view uses a logarithmic scale: equal vertical gaps mean 10× growth. This is a scenario, not observed data or a forecast.
Capacity assumes local circles handle follow-up; no central direct-support staff are included.
See Q3 activity totals
Invitations
735k
First actions
184k
Repeat participants
91k
Follow-up gap
431
New member roles
91k
New organizers
4.6k
Adjust the growth dials ＋
The goal case is intentionally demanding: 500 invitations per organizer each quarter, 15.5% of eligible members becoming organizers each quarter, and 40 repeat participants per circle. Replace these assumptions with observed cohort rates as they become available.
Active participant: a distinct person completing at least two meaningful campaign actions in a rolling 12 months. A sign-up, impression, or RSVP by itself does not count. Starting counts and every conversion rate here are unverified assumptions.
Strategy
One movement. One loop.
Each horizon answers a different question: why, what mission, where, what result, and which projects get us there.
H4Mission
Build a movement for an AI Treaty that prevents an AI arms race.
H3Campaign
California: organize people and local leaders to build public support for a federal AI Treaty.
H2Objective · Oct 2026–Sep 2027
Build an Act → Recruit → Train system toward 100,000 active people by Sep 30, 2027.
H1Projects
Berkeley circle pilot · Fellowship-to-organizer path · practical training · California policy map.
H0Daily tasks
Stay in internal work tools; this public strategy view shows no personal assignments.
The organizing loop
01
Act
Give people a meaningful campaign action.
02
Recruit
Build relationships; invite people into an ongoing role.
03
Train
Help members lead actions and bring in more people.
Trained organizers lead the next action. Growth is only useful if people return, take responsibility, and can lead together.
Quarterly checkpoints · proposed
Ambitious targets to test, not adopted commitments or measured results.
Q4 2026 · Oct–Dec
100 active
Verify the baseline; test the Berkeley circle and connect learning to real action.
In progress · Oct 16 snapshot
Q1 2027 · Jan–Mar
1,000 active
Complete two local Act → Recruit → Train cycles; test Fellowship-to-organizer learning.
Proposed · not adopted
Q2 2027 · Apr–Jun
10,000 active
Improve the weakest measured transition; prepare next locations only with local leaders.
Proposed · not adopted
Q3 2027 · Jul–Sep
100,000 active
Scale the loop, or report the actual count, gap, and binding constraint.
Proposed · not adopted
History to date · expand quarters
March–May 2026 · reconstructed
Establish a public starting point
Public activity began in March; the brand launched April 30. The website, organization email, LinkedIn presence, and initial nonprofit paperwork were started. Berkeley campaign exploration began; the exact inception date is not established.
Q2 2026 · inferred from notes
Learn locally; build the funding path
Notes point to grant work, warm-network follow-up, local listening, and campaign research. No standalone quarterly OKR was found; broad cold outreach and a second entity were held back.
Q3 2026 · formal OKRs
Test campaigns and organizer pathways
Formal objectives covered fundraising, participation pathways, and recruitment actions. The Fellowship launched and eight volunteer contributors were reported by September. Progress against every target was not reconciled.
Q4 2026 · underway at Oct 16
Test Berkeley organizing
October direction centers on a Berkeley local-organizing pilot, member and organizer workflows, and practical learning. No formal Q4 re-baseline was found; the year-end update remains open.
Planning lenses & open alignment question
Jim Collins: improve one repeatable turn at a time.
Andy Grove: optimize the work that multiplies results across the movement.
Paul Engler: build organizers through action, relationships, and practice.
An earlier strategy memo named “landmark legislation for democratic AI by 2030.” This draft keeps the AI Treaty as the current mission and California as the campaign focus without claiming those directions have been formally reconciled.
Scorecard · what to measure＋
Review monthly by cohort. Pick the weakest step to improve each quarter. Report participation separately from California policy milestones.
First action
Distinct people taking one meaningful campaign action.
Return
First-time participants who take a second action within 90 days.
Member role
Repeat participants who accept an ongoing responsibility.
Organizer
Members trained who lead an action and its follow-up.
Organizer return
Organizers who lead a second cycle and develop others.
Circle capacity
Active participants and trained co-leads in each circle.
Retention
Participants and organizers still active after 12 months.
Policy progress
Publicly verifiable milestones, tracked separately.
Public reporting uses aggregate counts only. Do not publish personal assignments or details that could identify individual participants.